新冠论文2000字 新冠疫情对全球旅游业造成影,响评估

　Acknowledgements 4

　 6 Introduction

　 6

　 7 10 1 1 12 How the COVID-19 crisis hits tourism Tourism in the CGE model GTAP Scenarios Results

　 7

　 10

　 1

　 1

　 12

　 17References

　 19

　 17

　 Implications and conclusions

　Acknowledgements

　This paper has been written by Badri Narayanan Gopalakrishnan, Ralf Peters and David Vanzetti under the overall guidance of Pamela Coke Hamilton, Director, Division on International Trade and Commodities, UNCTAD.

　This paper has benefited from the contributions of: Lien Huong Do, from the Australian National University; Sumathi Chakravarthy, from Infinite Sum Modelling LLC, Seattle; and Jeanelle Clarke, Graham Mott, Alessandro Nicita, Tansug Ok, Carlos Razo, Claudia Roethlisberger, and Simonetta Zarrilli Traeger from UNCTAD.

　Graphic design and desktop publishing were done by Nadege Hadjemian.

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　Introduction

　By June 2020, COVID-19 infected over 10 million people and caused the deaths of over 500,000 worldwide (WHO1). Globally, the spread shows no sign of abating. Although daily cases in Europe and Western Pacific are declining, they are increasing in the Americas, South East Asia and Africa. In response, most countries have closed their borders to visitors and tourists. The UN World Tourism Organization2 reported during the second quarter of 2020 for the first time ever that

　100 per cent of global destinations introduced travel restrictions. As a result, international tourism has been almost totally suspended, and domestic tourism curtailed by lockdown conditions imposed in many countries. Although some destinations have started slowly to open up, many are afraid of international travel or cannot afford it due to the economic crisis.

　Tourism is a critical sector of the international economy. In 2019, the tourism sector accounted for 29 per cent of the world’s services exports and about 300 million jobs globally.3 It is an important source of income and employment for developed and developing countries. The global contraction in tourism arrivals could have devastating economic consequences as some developing countries are highly dependent on tourism. In some countries, such as several small island developing states (SIDS), tourism accounts for more than half of the GDP.

　This paper focuses on the potential economic effects of the halt of tourism, in the short and medium term, in the major tourist destinations as well as in those countries highly dependent on tourism (as a share of GDP). In this context, special attention is placed on developing countries where the prosperity of some communities can be seriously compromised by the fall of tourism revenues. The paper considers three different scenarios to quantify the impact of the reduction in global tourism on country incomes, trade and employment using a general equilibrium model which captures the backward and forward linkages between sectors. The paper concludes with policy implications.

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　1 / accessed 26 June 2020.

　2 /news/covid-19-travel-restrictions

　3 /doi/pdf/10.18111/9789284421152

　? Bgui

　? Bgui yong nian - Adobe Stock

　Tourism is one of the fastest growing economic sectors and is an important driver of economic growth and development. In 2018 there were 1,407 million international tourist arrivals, a six per cent increase on the previous year.4 Tourism receipts amounted to $1,480 billion, an increase by 4.4. per cent, higher than global GDP growth as in the previous 8 years. Passenger transport is worth another

　$250 billion. Tourism exports account for seven per cent of global trade in goods and services, or

　$1.7 trillion. In 2019, the most popular destinations were France, Spain, the USA and China.

　Tourism is a major source of employment globally. The labour market has some distinguishing features. The industry is labour-intensive in nature. A high proportion of the jobs are undertaken by women, 54 per cent, significantly higher than in most other sectors, and young employees, meaning the industry is seen as inclusive. However, women are more likely to be entrepreneurs in tourism than in other sectors and most women hold low skilled jobs in the tourism sector, making them vulnerable to shocks. There is also a significant amount of indirect employment in construction and infrastructure development, plus supplying food and drink and souvenirs to tourists. Furthermore, many employees have direct contact with tourists in travel agencies, airlines, ships, hotels, restaurants, shopping centres and various tourist attractions.

　COVID-19 is a health and economic crisis on a global scale. While little is known at this time about many aspects of the disease (such as asymptomatic transmission, preventative measures, possible treatments, the likelihood of a vaccine and long term effects), it is generally agreed that the virus is easily transmissible and that the fatality rate is low when compared to previous pandemics such as SARS, Ebola and the bubonic plague. Fatalities are heavily skewed towards older people and those with existing ailments.

　To slow the spread of the virus, many countries have encouraged or mandated the use of sanitary practices such as hand washing, social (spatial) distancing and isolation. Government have introduced a slew of policy measures such as targeted testing and tracing, lockdown measures, upgrading public health facilities and closure of borders. The measures have impacted many industries and the delivery of personal services, resulting in demand and supply side shocks.

　International tourism is among the economic sectors most impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. The United Nations World Tourism Organization (UN WTO) estimates a loss of 850 million to 1.1 billion international tourist arrivals, $910 million to $1.1 trillion in export revenues and 100-120 million jobs, depending on whether the borders are opened in July, September or December. Most destinations were entirely closed in April and May 2020, opening only in some regions slowly for the northern summer. UN WTO projections reflect considerable uncertainty about the duration of the pandemic, in addition to the government response to support economic activity.

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　4 Data in this section is from UN WTO (2020).

　5 Zarrilli and Aydiner-Avsar (2020) provide an overview of female employment in the tourism sector in SIDS countries and how they might be affected by the COVID-19 crisis.

　For Least Developed Countries (LDCs), tourism is also an important sector contributing 9.5 per cent to their GDP on average.6 For 42 out of 47 Least Developed Countries, tourism is considered a key sector of the economy.7 Some larger high or middle income countries, such as Croatia, Greece and Thailand, also depend significantly on tourism with a share of inbound tourism between 8 and 18 per cent.

　Countries most dependent on tourism include many small economies and notably, SIDS (Coke Hamilton, 2020). This is illustrated in Figure 1 which shows the inbound tourism as a share of GDP in the 20 most dependent countries. Common characteristics among these countries include small domestic markets, a low degree of export diversification and remoteness. As a result, these economies are highly vulnerable to external shocks and thus, are among the most impacted by COVID-19. It is anticipated that the economic blow to SIDS will result in record amounts of revenue losses without the alternative sources of foreign exchange revenues necessary to service external debt and pay for imports.8

　Figure 1.

　Inbound tourism expenditure as share of GDP, selected economies, 2018

　Macao, China Antigua and Barbuda

　Maldives

　Saint Lucia Grenada

　Seychelles Vanuatu Anguilla

　Saint Kitts and Nevis Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

　Cabo Verde

　Belize Fiji Samoa

　Montenegro Dominica Georgia Montserrat

　Croatia

　Jamaica

　74%

　60%58%53%

　60%

　58%

　53%

　45%

　38%

　37%

　36%

　35%

　30%

　26%

　25%

　25%

　22%

　22%

　22%

　22%

　20%

　20%

　20%

　Note: * SIDS

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　6 COVID-19 hitting tourism hard: What does this mean for the world’s poorest countries? May 13, 2020. Brendan Vickers, Salamat Ali, Deanna Ramsay.

　7 Enhanced Integrated Framework (EIF), .

　8 Impact of COVID-19 on Tourism in Small Island Developing States (2020), Pamela Coke-Hamilton

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　In addition to inbound tourist expenditure, tourism also has indirect effects on the economy. Tourism employs labour, capital (ports and airports), and a host of intermediate inputs such as financial services, education, food and alcohol, and domestic travel.

　Due to the remoteness of many SIDS, travel to these destinations is expensive for consumers in important export markets such as North America, Europe and Asia. Consumers are limited to air and sea travel to reach these destinations. Given the current public health and safety concerns, these transportation options are not feasible at this time for many international tourists. The dramatic reduction in global demand for international travel has caused significant setbacks in key industries, most evidently the cruise and airline industries.

　Amid travel restrictions, the cruise industry has suspended sailing until September 2020. The industry has seen record losses in share prices amongst the top three cruise lines - Carnival, Norwegian Cruise Line and Royal Caribbean Cruises.9 For example, Carnival’s share price dropped 70 per cent in the first quarter of 2020, However, booking for 2021 are 40 per cent up on 2019, according to data from industry sources, but this may reflect postponed booking from 2020.10

　As of April 2020, the airline industry (IATA) has recorded an 80 per cent drop in flights when compared to the same period in 2019. In the IATA financial outlook for the global air transport industry, it showed that airlines are expected to lose $84.3 billion in 2020.11 Frankfurt’s passenger numbers, home of Europe’s biggest airline Lufthansa, dropped by 97 per cent in April. The situation is even worse in some other airports, such as Lima with a drop of 99 per cent. Chili’s LATAM airline, Latin America’s biggest carrier, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, and Lufthansa survived only with a €9 billion bailout.

　IATA reports that passenger numbers may not recover to 2019 levels until 2023-24. Domestic flights will recover much sooner, reflecting the closed international borders and uncertainty about the safety of long-distance air travel. Some 40 per cent of respondents to an IATA survey said they would wait at least six months after restrictions were lifted before resuming travel (IATA 2020). Tourist travel is discretionary spending and a global recession will dampen consumers enthusiasm for international travel. In particular because ticket prices may increase if social distance measures have to be observed in planes and airports. The bankruptcy of several airlines may also increase the cost of air travel.

　Taken altogether, the availability and accessibility of transportation will have a profound impact on the financial recovery for many tourism dependent economies. Many predictions do not anticipate a return to normal levels in the short term for the tourism sector.

　9 /sites/sergeiklebnikov/2020/06/19/cruise-lines-facing-record-losses-extend-suspension-of-sailing-until- september/#303766e75b76

　10 /.

　11 /en/pressroom/pr/2020-06-09-01/

　? Blue

　? Blue Planet Studio - Adobe Stock

　Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models capture intersectoral relationships as specified in input- output tables, which show the inputs used in production in each sector. CGE models also link countries through bilateral trade in goods and services. They are designed to show the economy wide effects of changes in tariffs, transport costs, productivity changes and other exogenous shocks. The CGE model used here is GTAP, a multi-country and multi-sectoral model fully documented in Hertel and Tsigas (1997).

　The current version of the GTAP database (V10) include sectors “Accommodation, food and services” and “Recreation and other services” which covers most tourist expenditure.12 Travellers’ expenditure is allocated across sectors, as described in the GTAP documentation:

　“Travelers’ expenditures” includes spending abroad by tourists, people working overseas for short periods, and the like. The balance of payments statistics treats these expenditures as a single services commodity. But to fit in with the I-O [Input-Output] accounting framework in the GTAP Data Base, we need to resolve them into the standard GTAP commodities; so if a traveler abroad buys a T-shirt or a train ticket, we treat the expenditure as trade in apparel or in “other transport”, not in “travelers’ expenditures”.13

　Most of the travellers’ expenditure is in two sectors “Accommodation, food and services” and “Recreation and other services”. However, a serious limitation is that in GTAP, national income is defined as revenue produced within the borders of the national territory, as noted by Berrittella et al. (2004). Therefore, the additional expenditure generated by tourism activities is not accounted for as exports, but as additional domestic consumption. Foreign income spent inside the country amounts to an income transfer. Changes in the flow of tourists can be modelled as changes in final consumption plus changes in the international income transfers. A change in tourist demand is modelled as a shock to output of sectors “Accommodation, food and services” (afs) and “Recreation and other services”, (ros) according to the UN WTO estimates of inbound tourist expenditure and the reduction in expenditure dependent on the duration of the shutdown.

　In this application, the database is aggregated to 65 sectors and 65 regions. This includes several EU member countries which are important tourist destinations and a source of tourists. Most SIDS countries are unfortunately not single entities in GTAP but part of a larger region. Appendix table A1 shows the regions. All 65 sectors are included in GTAP.

　It is further assumed that low skilled workers in all countries/sectors can become unemployed if demand for labour falls, though unemployed can try to find employment in other sectors within countries. High skilled workers can also move to other sectors, but adjustment occurs in wages. These assumptions reflect evidence in labour markets where low skilled workers tend to have a higher risk of becoming unemployed in case of an economic shock than higher skilled workers.

　The GTAP data is also updated, starting from a base year of 2014 (GTAP version 10A data base) to the more recent year of 2018, using the World Bank macroeconomic dataset, employing the tool named GTAPAdjust (Horridge, 2011), which entails scaling of the entire data based on certain targets, which could be both macro and micro level.

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　12 The Version 10 database is documented in Aguiar et al. (2019).

　13 See McDougall and Hagemejer (2006).

　? Celine

　? Celine Bisson - Adobe Stock

　To illustrate the potential impact of the decline in the tourism sectors, three scenarios are simulated and described in table 1. The scenarios, Moderate (optimistic), Intermediate and Dramatic (pessimistic), vary in the length of international tourism absence. The scenario Intermediate is closest to the assessment of the UN WTO (2020b) that international tourist numbers could fall by 60 to 80 per cent in 2020. The Intermediate scenario assumes a reduction by 66 per cent.

　Table 1.

　Alternative scenarios

　No Label

　Description

　Moderate

　1/3 of annual inbound tourism expenditure is removed in each country. This is equivalent to 4 months standstill of international tourism or a

　 80% for 5 months.

　Intermediate

　2/3 of inbound tourism expenditure are removed in each country.

　This is equivalent to 8 months standstill of international tourism or a

　 80% for 10 months.

　Dramatic

　All annual inbound tourism expenditure is removed in each country.

　T1h2ismisoneqthusivaslteanntdtostailllmoofsitnternational tourism.

　In each scenario, annual tourism expenditure is reduced as a productivity shock. The shocks are proportionate to inbound tourist expenditure (shown earlier in figure 1 for selected countries). Industry output is reduced by a third, two thirds and almost all of this amount, in the three scenarios, respectively. The national effects on output and consumption take into account inputs in the tourism sector such as food, drink and transport.

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　? Nicolas

　? Nicolas Herrbach - Adobe Stock

　The model captures the direct and indirect effects of the decline in international tourism receipts on the global economy. Taking into account the subsectors that support the tourism industry, the incurred loss to GDP is much larger than the direct effects of the loss of tourism. As demonstrated in the model, global GDP losses under the most optimistic tourism reduction scenario amount to an estimated $1.17 trillion, about 1.5 per cent of global GDP (figure 2). Extending the four months lockdown to eight and 12 months increases the losses in a fairly linear fashion, to $2.22 (2.8 % of world’s GDP) and $3.3 trillion (4.2% of world’s GDP) respectively. The estimated GDP losses of $3.3 trillion are more than double the size of the international tourism industry alone in the worst-case scenario.

　Figure 2.

　Dramatic-$3.3

　Dramatic

　-$3.3 trillion

　12 months standstill

　Moderate-$1.2

　Moderate

　-$1.2 trillion 4 months standstill

　Intermediate

　-$2.2 trillion

　8 months standstill

　SCENARIO 1

　Scenarios

　SCENARIO 2

　SCENARIO 3

　

　Source: GTAP simulations.

　The GDP losses by country are varied, as illustrated in figure 3. The losses are largely determined by the size of the tourism industry relative to GDP. This is also partly dependent upon the inter-sectoral linkages of supply in the tourism industry and the ability of a country to shift from tourism to other industries. It is important to note that the GTAP database is not disaggregated to capture all economies individually and as a result, many smaller economies including many SIDS are captured as a part of regional groupings.

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　According to the model, Jamaica stands out with a loss of 11 per cent in GDP in the moderate scenario. This finding is unsurprising as the tourism industry accounts for 20 per cent of GDP in Jamaica. A similar scenario may be estimated for other SIDS where the tourism sector is a significant contributor to GDP. Thailand is also among the most heavily affected countries with a loss in GDP of 9 per cent in the moderate scenario. This is followed by popular tourist destinations Croatia, Portugal and Dominican Republic which record losses of 9 per cent, 8 per cent and 6 per cent respectively. Many countries face losses over 3 per cent of GDP.

　In absolute terms, the world’s largest trading economies, USA and China face the largest declines in GDP. The USA incurs the highest losses with a drop of US$187 billion in GDP in the moderate scenario. Following the US, China faces a loss of US$104 billion in GDP. Major tourist destinations such as Thailand, France and Germany stand to lose approximately US$47 billion each in GDP due to the contraction in tourism.

　Figure 3.

　Changes in GDP: 15 most affected countries, moderate scenario

　Source: GTAP simulations. See Appendix table A3 for the detailed numbers.

　Based on the results, the impact on GDP is significant when direct and indirect effects of a reduction of international tourism are assessed. A decreased demand for exports and/or reduced national demand and supply due to prolonged lockdown measures would also have a compounding negative effect on the economic position for many countries.

　Sectoral impacts

　Turning to the sectoral impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model GTAP covers the global economy and links all sectors through input-output tables and production functions. The advantage of CGE models is that it allows analysis on intersectoral linkages and takes limitations of the availability of primary

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