第四版新冠肺炎疫情与全球就业监测报告_全球新冠肺炎实时疫情动态视频

　? ILO Monitor:

　COVID-19 and the world of work. Fourth edition

　Updated estimates and analysis

　27 May 2020

　Key messages

　Workplace and business closures

　? As indicated by revised figures providing additional details on the scope of countries’ workplace closure policies, 94 per cent of the world’s workers are living in countries with some sort of workplace closure measures in place. Although more

　and more countries are easing these measures to gradually allow workers to return to their workplaces, as at 17 May 2020,1 20 per cent of the world’s workers lived in countries with required workplace closures for all but essential workers. An additional 69 per cent lived in countries with required workplace closures for some sectors or categories of workers, and a further 5 per cent lived in countries with recommended workplace closures.

　Lost working hours in the first half of 2020 continue to reflect a severe impact on employment

　? The prospects for the second quarter of 2020 remain dire, with the latest ILO estimates revealing a decline in working hours of around

　10.7 per cent relative to the last quarter of 2019, which is equivalent to 305 million full-time jobs (assuming a 48-hour working week and using the updated baseline).2 From a regional perspective, the Americas (13.1 per cent) and Europe and

　Central Asia (12.9 per cent) present the largest losses in hours worked.

　The labour market benefits of testing and tracing

　? Testing and tracing of infections, as recommended by WHO, is strongly associated with lower labour market disruption. ILO estimates suggest that testing and tracing can help to reduce working hour losses by as much as 50 per cent. The estimated average loss of hours for countries with the lowest intensity

　of testing and tracing is around 14 per cent, compared with 7 per cent for those with the highest intensity. This is an important factor to consider in the design of policy measures aimed at facilitating a safe return to work.

　? Widespread testing and tracing enables countries to better utilize information and rely less on severely restrictive measures (public health policy channel) and, at the same time, helps to generate and maintain the public confidence necessary

　for economic activity (economic confidence channel). Testing and tracing can also help to minimize disruptions in operations at workplaces (workplace operations channel).

　All figures quoted in this edition of the ILO Monitor have been calculated on the basis of data available as at 17 May 2020, unless otherwise stated.

　Compared with the third edition of the ILO Monitor, the estimated working-hour loss for Q2 has increased by 0.2 percentage points, as the reference values of weekly hours worked, for computation, have been updated since the previous edition; however, the estimated full-time equivalent remains the same at 305 million jobs (see Technical Annex 1 for more details).

　Young people are facing multiple shocks from the COVID?19 crisis, which could lead to the emergence of a “lockdown generation”

　? Young people constitute major victims of social and economic consequences of the pandemic, and there is a risk that they will be scarred throughout their working lives – leading to the emergence of a “lockdown generation”.

　? The most recent figures show that young people are disproportionately affected by the COVID?19 crisis, with multiple shocks including disruption to education and training, employment and income losses, and greater difficulties in finding a job.

　? A total of 178 million young workers around the world, more than four in ten young people employed globally, were working in hard-hit sectors when the crisis began. Almost

　77 per cent (or 328 million) of the world’s young workers were in informal jobs, compared

　with around 60 per cent of adult workers (aged 25 and above). The youth informality rate ranges from 32.9 per cent in Europe and Central Asia

　to 93.4 per cent in Africa. Even before the crisis, more than 267 million young people were not in employment, education or training (NEET),

　including almost 68 million unemployed young people.

　? Both technical and vocational education and training (TVET) and on?the?job training are suffering massive disruption. In a recent ILO–UNESCO–World Bank joint survey, around

　98 per cent of respondents reported a complete or partial closure of technical and vocational schools and training centres. Although over two-thirds of training is now being provided at distance, often online, few low-income countries have actually made that transition.

　? Another new global survey by the ILO and partners of the Global Initiative on Decent Jobs for Youth reveals that over one in six young people surveyed have stopped working since the onset of the COVID?19 crisis. Among young people who have remained in employment, working hours have fallen by 23 per cent. Moreover, around

　half of young students report a likely delay in the completion of their current studies, while

　10 per cent expect to be unable to complete them at all. On a standardized scale of mental well-being, more than half of the young people surveyed have become vulnerable to anxiety or depression since the start of the pandemic.3

　Policy responses

　? The ILO calls for urgent and large-scale policy responses to prevent long-lasting damage to young people in terms of education/training and labour market prospects. Governments need to provide comprehensive solutions to the above challenges, combining elements from all four pillars of the ILO policy framework for responding to the COVID-19 crisis.

　? Policy interventions targeting young people should be introduced within comprehensive, inclusive and forward-looking employment policy frameworks, including the effective implementation of employment/skills guarantees, linked to broader stimulus and recovery packages.

　? Bringing about and sustaining an employment- rich recovery will be facilitated by further testing and tracing of infections, along with careful monitoring of the impact of the crisis on enterprises and workers in the sectors most

　affected, including those in the informal economy.

　? Given the potential for change in the structure of the economy in the post?COVID?19 period, support should be channeled to sectors that are able to create decent and productive employment.

　“Possible anxiety or depression” according to the Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Wellbeing Scales.

　Context: The severe impacts of lockdown on workers continue

　An overwhelming majority of workers around the world live in countries with some sort of workplace closure measures in place; around one-fifth of these live in countries that have closed all workplaces except those deemed essential. According to the latest version of the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker database,4 as at 17 May 2020,

　20 per cent of the world’s workers lived in countries with required workplace closures for all but essential workplaces, an additional 69 per cent lived in countries with required workplace closures for some sectors or categories of workers, and 5 per cent lived in countries with recommended workplace closures (figure 1).

　More countries have relaxed workplace closure measures to enable workers to return gradually to their workplaces. Since the beginning of April, several

　countries that had originally closed all but essential workplaces have been easing these measures. This translates into a decline, since early April, in the share of workers living in countries with required workplace closures for all but essential workplaces, along with a corresponding increase in the share of workers living in countries with required workplace closures for some sectors or categories of workers.

　Unprecedented losses in working hours in the first half of 2020

　The crisis continues to cause an unprecedented reduction in economic activity and working time, with the latest data confirming the previous estimates of working hours lost (see Technical Annex 1). An estimated 4.8 per cent of working hours were

　lost during the first quarter of 2020 (equivalent to approximately 135 million full-time jobs, assuming a 48-hour working week and using the updated

　%

　%

　? Figure 1. Relaxation of lockdown measures is leading to a declining share of workers in countries with general workplace closures1009080706050403020100Note: The shares of employed in countries with required workplace closures for some sectors or categories of workers and recommended workplace closures are stacked on top of the share of employed in countries with required workplace closures for all but essential workplaces.Source: ILOSTAT, ILO modelled estimates, November 2019, and Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker.Share of the world's employed living in countries with required workplace closures for some sectors or categories of workersShare of the world's employed living in countries with recommended workplace closuresShare of the world's employed living in countries with required workplace closures for allbut essential workplaces1-Jan9-Jan17-Jan25-Jan2-Feb10-Feb18-Feb26-Feb5-Mar13-Mar21-Mar29-Mar6-Apr14-Apr22-Apr30-Apr8-May16-MaySince the last edition of the ILO Monitor, the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker has been enhanced, with new indicators added and revisions made to existing

　? Figure 1. Relaxation of lockdown measures is leading to a declining share of workers in countries with general workplace closures

　100

　90

　80

　70

　60

　50

　40

　30

　20

　10

　0

　Note: The shares of employed in countries with required workplace closures for some sectors or categories of workers and recommended workplace closures are stacked on top of the share of employed in countries with required workplace closures for all but essential workplaces.

　Source: ILOSTAT, ILO modelled estimates, November 2019, and Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker.

　Share of the world's employed living in countries with required workplace closures for some sectors or categories of workers

　Share of the world's employed living in countries with recommended workplace closures

　Share of the world's employed living in countries with required workplace closures for all

　but essential workplaces

　1-Jan

　9-Jan

　17-Jan

　25-Jan

　2-Feb

　10-Feb

　18-Feb

　26-Feb

　5-Mar

　13-Mar

　21-Mar

　29-Mar

　6-Apr

　14-Apr

　22-Apr

　30-Apr

　8-May

　16-May

　baseline), relative to the fourth quarter of 2019.5 This represents a slight upward revision of around 7 million full-time jobs since the third edition of the ILO Monitor, indicating that in the first quarter of 2020 the crisis

　hit labour markets harder than previously estimated, especially in upper-middle- and high-income countries.6

　The estimated decline in work activity in the first quarter of 2020 is uneven across regions. While the number of hours worked in the first quarter of 2020 declined by 6.5 per cent in Asia and the Pacific (driven by an 11.6 per cent decrease in East Asia), all other major regions experienced decreases of 3 per cent or less in the first quarter. This labour market pattern is closely related to the timing of outbreaks and the introduction of physical distancing measures in different regions of the world. Global patterns in hours lost in the first quarter are driven to a great extent by the exceptional impact of the COVID-19 crisis in China during that quarter.

　? Figure 2. Drop in working hours in the first and second quarters of 2020 is severeEstimated percentage drop in aggregate working hours relative to the pre-crisis baseline (4th quarter 2019, seasonally adjusted)1st quarter 20202nd quarter 2020World1st quarter 20202nd quarter 2020Low-income countries Lower-middle-income countries Upper-middle-income countriesHigh-income countries1st quarter 20202nd quarter 2020Africa Americas Arab StatesAsia and the Paci?c Europe and Central AsiaSource:

　? Figure 2. Drop in working hours in the first and second quarters of 2020 is severe

　Estimated percentage drop in aggregate working hours relative to the pre-crisis baseline (4th quarter 2019, seasonally adjusted)

　1st quarter 2020

　2nd quarter 2020

　World

　1st quarter 2020

　2nd quarter 2020

　Low-income countries Lower-middle-income countries Upper-middle-income countries

　High-income countries

　1st quarter 2020

　2nd quarter 2020

　Africa Americas Arab States

　Asia and the Paci?c Europe and Central Asia

　Source: ILO nowcasting model.

　10.7%

　4.8%

　From a regional perspective, the Americas and Europe and Central Asia present the largest losses in hours worked. In the Americas, the loss of working hours in the second quarter is expected to reach 13.1 per cent relative to the pre-crisis level. In Europe and Central Asia, the decline is estimated at

　12.9 per cent. The estimates for the other regions follow closely, all being above 9.5 per cent. South America

　and Southern and Western Europe are the regions with the largest upward revisions to loss of hours worked (by more than one percentage point) since the third edition of the ILO Monitor – reflecting, respectively, the deteriorating situation in South America and the fact that the labour market impact of the measures taken in Europe has been more severe than expected.

　However, through intensive testing and tracing, some countries have managed better than others to control the spread of COVID?19 and to minimize the restrictions to economic activity. As many countries gradually ease their lockdown measures

　to enable workers to return to their workplaces, it

　is crucial to monitor how these changes will affect working hours, employment and labour income in the coming months.

　1.7

　1.7%

　1.9%

　8.8%

　2.3%

　8.8%

　11.4%

　9.9%

　12.2%

　1.

　1.7%

　1.7%

　2.1%

　6.5%

　3.0%

　9.5%

　13.1%

　10.3%

　10.0%

　12.9%

　The fourth quarter of 2019, seasonally adjusted, is used as the baseline period in the ILO nowcasting model in order to have a benchmark against which to assess the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the labour market. All estimates of working hours lost refer to this fixed reference period.

　The ILO has revised the baseline estimate of hours worked. However, the full-time equivalents of hours of work lost presented here are of similar magnitude to those presented in the previous edition of the ILO Monitor.

　Testing and tracing

　Much of the loss in working hours in the current crisis is due to the public health measures taken to tackle the pandemic, which vary in their effectiveness and in the level of disruption they cause to production and consumption. The World Health Organization (WHO) recently reiterated the

　importance of case finding, testing, contact tracing, and isolation and care7 – henceforth referred to as “testing and tracing” or “T&T” – in combating the COVID-19 pandemic. Testing and tracing measures cause less labour market disruption than strict confinement and lockdown measures and have attracted considerable attention as many countries develop strategies to help workers to return safely to work.8

　To assess the link between testing and tracing and labour market disruption, we have analysed the relationship between a proxy for T&T intensity and the estimated loss of working hours in the second quarter of 2020 (see Technical Annex 2 for more details). The aim was to establish whether the loss of working hours in countries diminishes significantly as T&T efforts increase. It should be noted that this

　analysis does not allow us to infer a causal relationship between such measures and labour market disruption. Given the significant policy implications,

　it is important to analyse this relationship by making best use of existing information.

　ILO estimates suggest that testing and tracing is associated with a reduction in working hour losses by as much as 50 per cent (figure 3). The estimated average loss of working hours for countries with the lowest T&T intensity is around 14 per cent, compared with 7 per cent for those with the highest intensity.

　The results consistently point to a relationship between T&T and hours of work that is of great economic significance. A strong correlation still holds when other relevant factors are controlled for

　(e.g. labour market policies). This is also the case when different indicators of T&T intensity are used (see Technical Annex 2).

　A number of channels, including public health and economic factors, can explain the beneficial effect of testing and tracing on labour market outcomes. These channels all rely on improved knowledge and awareness gained through T&T.

　First, widespread T&T helps countries to rely less on severely restrictive measures (public health policy channel). Countries with an effective T&T programme (such as the Republic of Korea) tend to have lower probability, duration and severity of confinement and lockdown measures, which reduces the economic toll of these measures.

　E

　Estimated working hour loss (%)

　? Figure 3. Expected loss in working hours (%) is strongly correlated with testing and tracing (45 countries)2015105246Proxy of testing and tracing (log scale)810Note: The estimated slope coefficie

　? Figure 3. Expected loss in working hours (%) is strongly correlated with testing and tracing (45 countries)

　20

　15

　10

　5

　2

　4

　6

　Proxy of testing and tracing (log scale)

　8

　10

　Note: The estimated slope coefficient is –0.011 with a t-statistic of –2.95, and the p-value is 0.005. The confidence interval implies uncertainty in the estimated effect. Nevertheless, the degree of association is statistically significant.

　90% confidence interval

　Fitted values

　See e.g. ILO: A safe and healthy return to work during the COVID-19 pandemic, ILO policy brief, 21 May 2020.

　Secondly, by influencing risk perceptions, T&T can help to generate and maintain the public confidence necessary for economic activity (economic confidence channel). Having more precise knowledge about the evolution of the pandemic and assurance about access to testing is likely to mitigate the impact of the pandemic on both consumption and production. If risks are reduced and public confidence is enhanced, this can clearly boost economic activity.

　Thirdly, T&T can help to minimize disruptions in operations at workplaces (workplace operations channel). In particular, increased T&T could enable enterprises to organize and execute workplace activities more efficiently and safely. For instance, organizing precautionary measures, workers’ shifts and sick leave replacements, as well as maintaining operational continuity, are all made easier by T&T.

　These benefits need to be weighed against the costs associated with testing and tracing. Few data sources are available to quantify the cost of specific policy measures taken to contain COVID-19. However, there are indications that the financial resources required

　for effective T&T are far less than the overall economic impact of the pandemic (see Technical Annex 2). For instance, we estimate that testing expenditures in two countries with extensive T&T programmes are below

　0.1 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP). Given the need to promote a safe return to work and the highly favourable benefit-to-cost ratio of T&T, investing in such a strategy provides a large expected return both in economic and social terms. Furthermore, T&T can help to create new employment opportunities, even if temporary, which can be targeted at young people and other affected groups. The social cost of the pandemic can thus be further reduced. Cost implications also mean that low-income countries will require financial and technical assistance for T&T implementation to maximize the likelihood of the international community

　as a whole succeeding in controlling the pandemic while promoting a safe return to work.

　One key consideration of testing and tracing concerns data privacy. T&T programmes are only effective if they enjoy broad public support, which hinges on the inclusion of privacy safeguards. The implementation of T&T at the workplace should be in accordance with the principles governing the privacy of workers’ personal data – notably that the data should be processed lawfully and fairly,

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